Here We Go Again…Going Through the Same Thing!!
Nigerian politics is hot and heavy and as I observe things unfold; I could not help but wonder why the Igbos are repeating the same playbook that continuously marginalizes us. In my last article, I postulated that Atiku is the man to beat in this next election and outlined the reasons behind such a postulate. My rationale for such assertion was simply – the north will always vote for northern candidates in mass due to their monolithic nature. The Yorubas and Igbos will always end up splitting their votes for their preferred candidates not because they do not believe in their people, but the south has more diversified view of societal challenges and will more likely vote for the person they believe to be the best to mitigate these challenges.
What I did not anticipate was this frenzy surrounding Peter Obi and his emergence as not only the flagbearer for the Labor Party, but the adopted candidate for the Southeast and the Nigerian youth. This group believe that the current elitist politicians have totally discounted and disenfranchised them from mainstream politics. Over the years they have felt totally abandoned left to fend for themselves with no improvement in their daily lives. As a lost group, they have tended to latch onto anyone who professes to look out for them and Peter Obi, whether intentional or otherwise provides that comfort. Subsequently, they are now aggressively pushing and touting his accomplishments, qualifications, antecedents, and competencies as the only solution to that political paradigm shift which we all dream, and hope would happen one day. Kudos to the leaders of these groups for their successful efforts and use of social media echo chambers to galvanize the rest of their base to get on with the Obi program. But will that work?
Politics is and will always be a dirty game! Nevertheless, it is the only game available for the opposition and other ideologies to participate in wealth sharing. To that end, how one understands their political environment and plays this political game goes a long way to determining whether they are invited to share in the nation’s wealth. As always, the end justifies the means in politics! And if your mindset is not consistent with this idea of political negotiations, then you must be a novice who has not studied enough of democracies around the world to understand. Politics is not a game of winner takes all, the designers intended for it to be a system of negotiations regarding how resources would be distributed, especially understanding that not all members of the group will have equal rights in the true sense of it – this game of politics is designed in such a way that even minority members of any nation could influence outcomes if they understand how to play this game. In Nigeria, the minority groups do not understand this, and have falsely assumed they have equal access to that table. This does not exist anywhere in the world.
The Igbos are, once again, going through the same things that has kept them from participating in wealth sharing. Our penchant to play this emotional “all or none” politics has the resultant effect of making sure we are sidelined always. Politics is a game of negotiated settlements and all things being equal, we must be ready to negotiate our way into the halls of leadership in Nigeria. Today, our propensity to play politics of isolation is the reason some vindictive leaders personalize our rejection and reciprocate in vengeful manners. One good example was the total lack of commitment to the Southeast zone by the current president all due to his perception that the Southeasterners rejected him. This is despite him saying that he is for all. Half b
read, my people is better than none they say, and the Igbos must discard this method of excluding themselves from this boat called Nigeria. My dear Igbo people, there is nothing wrong with what we aspire, just that our method of actualizing those wants and needs is problematic. Have we been marginalized in Nigeria? The answer is absolutely and resoundingly YES! The question that is left to be answered is how we mainstream ourselves by using our collective votes to negotiate our due? The Hausa/Fulani, the Yoruba and even some in the Southeast will never accept our current method of muscle politics, we need to learn and understand that our share of the national wealth depends on how we package ourselves. As the Igbo proverb states, if you wash your hands clean, you can then eat with the elders.
Again, this next presidential election is PDPs’ election to lose. If you cannot see this, then you need your eyes shined. Regardless of how we feel about this, the stage is already set for the following demonstrated reasons.
1. The presidential flag-bearer for PDP is a northerner and it so happens that northerners, have the numbers. Politics is a game of numbers.
2. The entire presidential election is now a race between the three major tribes in Nigeria, Hausa/Fulani - PDP, Yoruba – APC, and the Labor Party - Igbo.
3. If all tribes voted based on tribalism, you already know the outcome, and no one can argue that.
However, we all know that Nigerian politics is unique in that you never know what will happen until it happens. All I am trying to do here is to counsel my fellow Southeasterners to be aware that there are other ways to win in politics than winning the top post. By this below assessment, I am not trying to advocate or suggest anything just laying out roadmaps to successful access to the dinner table where our national cake will be served and distributed.
PDP Roadmap
For PDP, their roadmap to securing a win at the presidential election is clear and open. By selecting a Hausa/Fulani as their flag bearer, they improved their chances of accessing a majority of the northern votes. The only question remaining is who PDP and Atiku selects as his running mate, and what influence the additional votes from this person will bring to the ticket. if this person is Igbo, chances are they will get some Igbo votes, and I say some because of the influence of Peter Obi as the presidential flag bearer for the Labor Party. On the other hand, if a Yoruba is selected as Atiku’s running mate, then and depending on the individual, this person may be likely to bring some Yoruba votes to PDP. Therefore, PDP’s margin of success in this election will depend on how many votes comes with his running mate. Again, this election is PDPs to lose. So, you make your choice.
APC Roadmap
We cannot discount APC and Tinubu from pulling a rabbit out of the proverbial hat. If APC manages to win this election, it will be a miracle because like I said before, this election will more likely be a referendum on Buhari and not a vote for the other party. The fact remains that Buhari has so much damaged APC and squandered the political capital that ushered APC into Aso Rock. The average Nigerian currently wants nothing to do with APC. Nevertheless, we know that Tinubu and the APC will enjoy support from the Yoruba nation – whether that will be enough to win is doubtful. APC could opt for a Muslim-Muslim ticket as is being suggested by some, but it is doubtful whether that will be enough to win either. This combination may get a few votes from the north and that’s about it. I do not believe that it will garner enough votes to rob Atiku and the PDP of the northern majority votes.
Now, if APC opts to select someone from the Southeast, it will be an uphill battle for APC to gain any meaningful support from the Southeast – and this is due to the regions disdain for Buhari, couple with the Peter Obi phenomenon which is on overdrive. As you can clearly see, there may be a roadmap for APC to win Aso Rock, but that pathway is littered with so many assumptions given the baggage of both Buhari, the party itself and Tinubu who is currently being ridiculed on social media for both his age and fitness to rule a complex nation like Nigeria. But my people, in Nigeria you just never know what will happen when it comes to politics – you just wake up the next day and watch who won and who is headed to the courts.
Labor Party and the Peter Obi Phenomenon
The Labor Party has hit pay dirt with the emergence of Peter Obi and his youth movement. He is everywhere on social media, and you can trust the Nigerian creativity to find ways of using social media echo chambers to hype, amplify and magnify his presence. The ultimate question is whether all these will be enough to guarantee a win at the presidency? This is where the road begins to get a little bumpy.
The emergence of Peter Obi has shined the light to some of the challenges the Igbos have faced all along. I was totally surprised by the number of Igbos that never bothered to register to vote in the last several elections until Peter Obi showed up. This is a problem! Despite our claim of being educated and progressive, one cannot help but wonder why it was so difficult for the average Igbo youth to register to vote. No wonder the other tribes do not feel threatened by our presence or continued agitate for inclusion – they have figured out that the Igbos are all talk but no action. To get our folks to register to vote, we have had to shut down our markets and churches and that alone is so telling. Personally, I am happy that Peter Obi has exposed the underbelly of the Igbo nonchalance and attitude towards Nigerian politics and has awakened the gods of wisdom in our youth who now want to massively secure their PVCs. Something the other tribes have known so well and have used to maintain their place at that table while we opted for a lot of noise on social media while chasing waterfalls.
The above notwithstanding, Peter Obi and the Labor Party are not poised at this time to win a national election. Whereas, he has ignited a political awareness in the Southeast, his party lacks the national muscle and ground game to effectively conduct a good national campaign. What the Peter Obi phenomenon portends is an assurance that Igbos will neither vote PDP nor APC during this election. In essence, we have chosen to put all our eggs in one basket and at our own expense. Consequently, what will eventually happen is that Igbos will once again be relegated to the background where we will continue to scream, whine, and complain about being relegated, sidelined and marginalized.
One more fact on this Labor Party phenomenon, if perchance Peter Obi wins this election, how is he going to govern? Have you thought about what parties will saturate both the House of Assembly and Senate? Do you believe the PDP and APC would allow Peter Obi to record any successes if they lost the presidency to the Labor Party? Reality is a bitch! What will happen is that Peter Obi will essentially become a lame duck president, and that is if these other two parties do not find ways to impeach him within the first year regardless.
So, here we go again repeating the same playbook that has ensured we remain outsiders in this Nigerian political game. I cannot but repeat what my good friend “Ordinary Man” always reminds me, “karate is a contact sport, and you cannot karate from afar.” Meaning for Igbos to find solace in Nigeria, we need to get smarter and begin to play inside politics the way it is supposed to be played in Nigeria. If we want change in Nigeria, we must, first and foremost, get ourselves inside the halls of justice and leadership. We make sure we are at that table where change decisions are made. We cannot change Nigeria as outsiders by simply screaming and shouting, if the last four years has thought us anything, it is the fact that no one cares about our cries and screams! To change Nigeria, all progressives must make sure we get ourselves inside the arena to be able to engage in this duel called CHANGE!
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