Is 2023 The Paradigm Shift Year?
We all witnessed what just happened in Osun State, where despite having control of all the political apparatus in the state, APC lost the gubernatorial election to PDP. The question on every mind and lips should be, is this indicative of anything or just another fluke that means nothing? Or is this possibly that paradigm shift that all well meaning Nigerians have been yearning will one day come to fruition?
This loss of Osun state by APC may be of concern to APC, but any person who is in tune with political trends in Nigeria should have seen this coming. In one of my previous articles, I posited that this next election will be a referendum on the Buhari presidency and PDPs’ election to lose. First, it is a referendum on the failed policies and inaction of President Buhari and APC party is now poised to pay a great price for their complacency in the last eight years of their no-achievement stewardship. The Osun election just proved my point and represents the beginning and tip of the iceberg for what’s to come. To think that APC lost in a state where they control almost all channels of government from the governor’s office to the state houses, and yet could not muster enough muscle to push through a win. Folks, this is telling and makes me question the so-called political savvy and machinery of Tinubu and the APC. If Tinubu could not deploy enough resources to win in his home state, I wonder how he will coordinate and tackle the entire nation including hostile areas in parts of the North and Southeast? Just like PDP under Jonathan, APC is done!
Another surprising part of this just concluded Osun election is the lack of showing by the Labor party. In the same article reference earlier, I also stated that the Peter Obi movement, despite being very strong on social media may lack enough roots and resources to reshape the political landscape at this time. Based on the growing momentum and popularity behind the Labor party, I had expected the Labor party to make some showing at the polling booth, instead their poor showing has exposed the Labor party’s lack of grassroots structure and may become a challenge when contesting at the national level – and if they are to read the tealeaves correctly, the Labor party should immediately focus on solidifying their grassroots reach and presence to be able to compete nationally. As much as I love the enthusiasm and awakening that Peter Obi and the Labor party has introduced into our political landscape, however, they will be better served to focus on turning those enthusiasm into political votes. Enthusiasm does not win elections, votes do! Furthermore, If the Labor party fails to secure a win in February, I believe the party should not give up all the goodwill generated by this Peter Obi phenomenon. Instead, should try to maintain and sustain that enthusiasm and be better prepared to fight again in four years. No good politician would want to lose such political capital regardless – but should have a plan to sustain its vision knowing that their day will come. I know my people, we have very short attention span, but long memories!
This above notwithstanding, there is something about this frenzied support for Peter Obi and the Labor party that should have all politicians concerned. It is true that the Obi movement has exposed the Igbos as poor politicians and strategists, but it is also indicative of the deep yearning in the belly of a lot of Nigerians for something new and different. It points directly to the fact that the electorate are tired of business as usual and the failed promises and policies of our current crop of leaders. Just as the failure of APC represents a referendum on President Buhari, Obi movement equally represents a rejection of the old guard. For most people, anything is better than what we have now. All they want is that “paradigm shift” and a total separation from the current political class. It then behooves a smart political party to read the writing on the wall correctly and work to shift their party’s image to take advantage of this new yearning. The question now is, which political party is savvy enough to take advantage of the “will” of the people by repositioning themselves as the protagonists of this new world and environment.
From all indicators, PDP is the political party to beat in this next election. Just as witnessed in Osun, APC will not perform well in 2023 not only because of the perceived health challenges of Tinubu but also the incompetence issues facing him and his party in general. Additionally, APC squandered a lot of the political goodwill that ushered them into Aso Rock seven-and-half year ago. Clearly, no one wants an APC back and as with the Osun election results, APC will lose big time in February 2023. For PDP, the win in Osun should represent a boost to their egos and they may be able to pull this off if they do the required homework to secure a win next year. It is not going to be a cake walk at all. Mind you, because they won in Osun does not mean it is now a given, therefore Atiku and PDP must work to earn whatever votes they hope to harness from the rest of the country next year. It will be a grave mistake for PDP to assume that since they won so handily in Osun, they may no longer need to work as hard to win the rest of the country. This is a false premise and may pose a disaster to PDP – they should strive to avoid the “sucker punch” effect and work to earn every vote.
Another reason PDP will be a formidable opponent to beat is our (Nigerians) propensity to vote what we know. Most Nigerians operate in the realm of their comfort zones and despite being conned, will remain in that zone. Also, there is this element of sectarianism and the monolithic nature of the North with their voting pattern. Having secured a Muslim as their flagbearer, PDP has a good chance of garnering a majority of the Muslim votes. Kwankwaso and NNPP will not be a factor here. What remains to be flushed out is how many votes PDP will be able to secure from the other geopolitical zones. One question that is confusing and confounding at the same time is…why Buhari is not playing a more active role in the APC campaigns? If you look back at previous elections (when a sitting president is termed out), they use their office to try to influence election outcome for their party. In some cases, they even deploying federal government resources to help their party secure wins. For some odd reason, Buhari is sitting on the fence with limited political activities coming from his office as the leader of APC. Could it be that he knows something that we all do not know, or is President Buhari being his normal “Baba Go Slow” self?
Nevertheless, for PDP to win they must define themselves as a new and reinvented political party devoid of all the shenanigans of the past to be able to get support from the Southeast. There must be a clear itemization of what values that will benefit the Southeast if PDP is elected in 2023. Mind you, most Nigerians do not differentiate between APC and PDP since their membership has been interchangeable over the years. Just like Buhari was able to convince Nigerians while running for office that he is a changed man, PDP need to convince Nigerians that they will bring something different to the table this time around – not to recycle the vision of the old PDP administration which drove them out office in 2015. It must be something unique to the party and that will resonate with Nigerians.
This Peter Obi phenomenon and the dynamism of the person continues to be a force that other major political parties should overlook at their own peril. I understand they may not admit publicly that they are worried but take it from me they are all worried and sweating bullets as they try to navigate this new environment created by the Obi’dient movement. This Obi movement has caught fire, and has rejuvenated, galvanized, and motivated previously uninterested segments of the Nigerian voting public. Our youth are as alive as they were during the END SARS campaign, and they are showcasing their newfound enthusiasm on social media and other platforms. This is something that is completely new in our politicians, and I am sure that the major political parties are watching this development with both concern and disdain. Today, what would have been considered a done deal battle between APC and PDP, has now turned into a three-way contest with the Labor party and their newfound enthusiasm sucking the air out of the political room. Do not be fooled, no one knows exactly what impact this Obi’dient movement will have in Nigerian politics.
But let us be real, what transpired in Osun governorship election for the Labor party is not a good omen. It should serve as an awakening that the Labor party has some work to do. It is not enough to saturate social media with calls for Peter Obi, that enthusiasm must be translated into votes to achieve what the Obi’dients envisage. The party must work hard at setting up the kind of structure that will ensure their supporters and followers make to the polling booths. A breakdown of the Osun election results showed the Labor party scoring dismally in all Local Government Areas (LGA) except in Irepodun local government where they recorded only 1886 votes. This must be concerning to Peter Obi and the party. To think that all these social media noise and echo resulted in so little votes is not only disappointing but a huge problem. What this means is that the Labor party has a lot of work to do to turn their follower’s enthusiasm from a social media phenomenon to real votes for a political party poised and ready to take Nigeria in the right direction.
Wait one minute - what about the down-ballots you may ask? There is this false sense within the Labor party movement that if Peter Obi is elected the next president of Nigeria, our challenges will all disappear. That is not true. Peter Obi will need the support of members of the House of Assembly and Senate to govern. The fact remains that if he does not have enough support in both houses, he will become a lame duck president with no ability to push forward his programs. That’s how the system works! Labor party supporters cannot help him in that instance, and I do not believe that is what the Labor party wants for their presidential candidate. So, as the Obi’dient movement gathers momentum for Peter Obi, they need to include other down-ballot positions especially in the House and Senate, if the Labor party does not control both houses and win the center, I believe Mr. Peter Obi has just been set up to fail. Now, there is this other caveat to consider. If the Labor party wins the presidency and as may be typical in the Nigerian political landscape all these other elected members of the house and senate defect to the Labor party, you can see how this newly minted clean and sanitized party will become as corrupt and adulterated as all our current parties. What a dilemma!
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