On Your Marks…. Set…. Go!
It appears the stage is set for the next presidential election! I am fully aware that there are other elective positions in the running for these elections, however, we all know that it’s all about Aso Rock and who occupies that seat. I am not predicting any winners or losers, nevertheless, by just looking at how and where the chips just fell, you could easily predict what the future will hold come February 2023.
PDP – and the Atiku Articulation
Whether we like it or not, Atiku will be a formidable candidate to beat in this next general election, and for so many reasons. For starters, and all things being equal, he will garner the bulk of the northern votes and we all know that the north is the most monolithic group of all Nigerian tribes. Moreover, they have a whole lot more people than any other tribal group. What becomes the calculus going forward will be how PDP intends to split the Igbo and Yoruba votes. This single move if played correctly could determine whether Atiku wins or loses. PDP exposed their hands by being the first to conduct its primaries and I say this because APC wanted to know what plans their main rival had before making their own selection. Mind you, this is not about what party wins or loses, it is about making sure the north maintains that seat in Asa Rock.
Going forward, who Atiku picks as vice president will go a long way to determine his margin of success or failure. He has his choice of either an Igbo running mate or one from the Yoruba tribe. What a novel place to be since either scenario will likely set up a mad scramble by the Yorubas and/or Igbos to lobby who prevails as vice president. Mind you, regardless of who Atiku selects, whether of Igbo or Yoruba extraction, the other tribe will never be happy and may turn their frustration against Atiku and the PDP. Therefore, it is incumbent on PDP to carefully evaluate this decision understanding it a damned if you do, or damned if you don’t scenario.
If Atiku selects a Yoruba running mate, the Igbos will feel that PDP has totally abandoned the group. This is because the Igbos were confident that PDP should have zoned their presidential flagbearer to the Southeast. They made it clear that they do not want to play second fiddle but wanted the o top post. Since that vision did not materialize, and while counting their loss, they will be further traumatized if the vice-presidential slot eludes them as well. Yes, and due to the rotation phenomenon, the Southeasterner were confident, given our loud agitations, that they had a good chance of someone from the southeast flagging off the presidential campaign for PDP. But as the primaries drew near, it became apparent, once Peter Obi left PDP that the Igbo prospects have been greatly compromised.
The Igbos never wanted to take a chance with APC, and this is due to their distrust for the current president. Furthermore, most politicians of Igbo extraction within APC who were nursing presidential aspirations have blemishes on their records and Igbos wanted nothing to do with these individuals. So, PDP was their main hope of taking the country back to the center where equity and fair play would become the norm. Nevertheless, what Atiku does with his choice for a running mate will go a long way in determining whether he wins or loses support of people from the Southeast. Pragmatically, that choice needs to be made carefully given the apparent risk of alienating either the Yorubas or the Igbos. Suffice to say that having a Yoruba as the flag bearer for APC, there may be some comfort for his choice if he settles for someone from the Southeast. It is true that we do not aspire for affirmative action, however we must understand that even some of our unconscious thinking are based on affirmative action. One more point is that Atiku should not behave as if he is “patronizing” the Igbos who do not like handouts.
APC – and the Tinubu Machinery and Ground Game
With Tinubu emerging as the APC presidential flag bearer, this has placed APC is a very precarious position. APC with Tinubu as their choice, will be faced with the daunting task of erasing the negative influence of Buhari, while facing same dilemma of having to pick a running mate from either the Southeast or the North. Again, with the North leading the way in PDP, they may not bode too badly if not selected for the position of running mate. But it may be a prudent way for APC to split the Northern votes thereby improving their chance of winning. The question remains, what choice of a running mate would give APC their best opportunity for winning in a general election?
We know that Tinubu has his own health and political concerns which is compounded by Buhari’s political baggage, nevertheless, he could minimize those negatives if he and his handlers make the right choice for who will be his running mate. Regardless, the one elephant in the room meaning Buhari enjoys so much dislike from the masses that this next election may be a referendum on the current president and not what is in the best interest of Nigeria. this was what brought Buhari to power! It was about getting rid of Jonathan and not that Buhari was a better option. Could Tinubu and APC get over that huddle? I do not know, but their choice will speak volumes.
Just like PDP, APC could opt for a vice president of Igbo extraction or someone from the north. Regardless, their choice will still have the same impact of alienating a group. Picking a northerner may erode some northern votes from Atiku, but will it be enough to win in a general election? This is because APC will further alienate the Igbos who as mentioned before are no fans of President Buhari. And, with Peter Obi’s popularity growing and the labor Party waxing strong, APC may get only marginal support from the Southeast. This support may be further eroded if Atiku picks a running mate from the region.
There is this talk of Tinubu having a solid national machinery and ground game that could help propel APC to another win, however, I do not believe that such ground game could overcome the damage Buhari has done to the party. As we all know, northerners are monolithic when it comes to voting – while the south sometimes vote their conscience. What this indicates is that all things being equal, northerners will solidly support their own regardless. Some people consider this northern solidarity, I think it is based on northern oligarchical setup which lends itself to the “Saraka” method of wealth distribution. Meaning that the average northerner does not aspire to be independently wealthy or affluent like their southern counterparts but is willing to depend on their elite to dispense and redistribute wealth through Saraka. You can see how they will more likely be willing to cast their votes to their own people (elite) regardless of whether the individual has any plans for the country when it comes to basic infrastructure. I am not saying that northerners lack ambition, just that there already exist, a system that favors social welfare and elitism to democracy.
I see a tough road ahead for Tinubu given the propensity for northerner to vote for their own. I believe that even APC members from the north will end up supporting Atiku since Nigerian politics is hardly a politics of improvement, but more a politic of which region controls power. Again, as I have heard repeatedly, it appears that Tinubu may have what it takes to negotiate his way into keeping some of his northern cohorts aligned with him and APC manifesto. Invariably, time will tell.
Labor Party – and the Peter Obi Populism
The Southeast for President (SE4PRES2023) group used the word “third force” to describe what they will do if no major political party selects one of their own as their party flag bearer. Well, it appears they do not have to constitute that “third force” after all. Peter Obi has emerged as that third force and based on his popularity and appeal to both the Southeasterners and our youth. The Labor Party is now poised to play the role of spoiler for either APC or PDP. All over social media, it is about Peter Obi; and for the Labor Party, this is sort of God’s gift for their political apparatus. However, whether Peter Obi’s popularity translates into real votes is something that we all will wait and see. The reason for this hesitation is because the Labor Party as it is currently constituted may not have the financial and shoe-leather ground game to match the effectiveness of either PDP or APC. These folks have been at this game for some time and have the national reach necessary to win big elections. We still need to keep an eye on that David!
There is no doubt that Peter Obi represents a breath of fresh air…something Nigerians with the correct mindset have been yawning for; however, the question remains – do we have enough juice in this movement to make a difference this time around? Based simply on what transpired during the just concluded primaries, Nigeria has not moved the needle one inch in the direction of equity, fair play, and righteousness. Money ($) still dominates our existence including the air we breathe. The average Nigeria will willingly exchange their future for a few dollars and blame it on hunger or their current conditions. So, there remains the role money will play in this general election. Again, if the primaries are an indication of what to expect, we can all kiss our enthusiasm for Peter Obi goodbye because PDP and APC will buy their way to success. I just do not believe that the Labor party has the resources and deep pockets to play this game today. Moreover, the leaders of the Labor Party have opted to play it clean and not jump into the mud with their corrupt counterparts. Regardless, it is a dirty game.
Since Peter Obi, for now represents a Southeast phenomenon, I do not believe that the person he picks as running will make any difference. It’s not that it does not matter who he selects, just that it is the Peter Obi show and he is the sole engine that is driving the Labor Party and their populism. So, regardless of who emerges as his running mate, Peter Obi will always be the force that drives all activities surrounding Labor Party and his campaign.
From a pragmatic perspective, this next election is simply a contest between APC and PDP with the Labor Party acting as a potential spoiler. A spoiler in the sense that Labor Party may drain enough votes from either PDP or APC thereby placing them at a disadvantage. However, I would caution that we cannot be disheartened if the Labor Party does not win. The one difference between this and the previous elections is that for the first time, we have the emergence of a political party that the common man could identify and align with - that to me represents one huge baby step toward cleaning up our system. This year, Peter Obi has provided that “start of something big” with his Labor Party movement, and that is, if we can sustain this movement. Always remember that Nigerians have short attention span but long memories. We must look at this phenomenon of Peter Obi as a start of a revolution that will eventually assist us make that paradigm shift to a new political landscape. Be mindful that politics is a long game, and we cannot expect to launder all our political garbage in one fell swoop.
So, who will win in this next election? You be the judge! For now, let see how these flag bearers opt to woo the Nigerian public – and do not overlook the fact that Nigerian politics is still about Naira and Kobo!
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