THAT 2023 MUST BE A SPECIAL YEAR!
Something is happening in the Nigerian political landscape, and I am hoping that whatever this phenomenon is real and not an aberration that will fade away after elections.
Let me begin by speaking about what is currently dominating social media and its associated echo chambers. I am talking about Peter Obi, the Labor Party and the OBI’DIENT movement. It is everywhere, WhatsApp, Twitter, Facebook, I mean everywhere. The Labor Party, whether this was planned, spontaneous or coincidental, is making effective use of social media to blast their vision, movement, and objectives to the world. But is this Obi’dient movement for real? In my previous two articles, I did project that APC will turn out the be the biggest loser in the upcoming election. Their loss is the direct manifestation of their culpability with an inept President Buhari. Suffice to say that their choice of Tinubu as their presidential flag bearer did not help matters. Nigerians are just sick and tired of being used by the APC administration!
The continued nonchalance and arrogance of the current administration is simply amazing. Here we are speaking about hunger, starvation and security challenges running rampant in the country and our president felt the best thing to do given these challenges was to gift approximately 1.4 billion naira worth of luxury vehicles to Niger Republic. Although Niger Republic has denied any such gifts, but it goes to show the sentiments of the average Nigerian toward APC. Regardless of the justification for this gift, charity must begin at home. You cannot fix someone else’ house when yours is in disarray. Nope, that is why I believe that APC will lose and lose big - Nigerians will never ever vote for APC in the upcoming election regardless.
For now, you are looking at a political party with a reputation for not only ineptitude but have opted to field a candidate who many believe has dementia and is suffering from the early stages of Parkinson’s disease. Such is the reality of Nigerian politics. Who in their right minds would even agree to such irresponsible choice irrespective of whether it is his turn? Nevertheless, APC is paying a price for their choices for both Buhari then and now Tinubu. We all witnessed what happened when President Obasanjo imposed Shehu Shagari on us despite knowing about his health condition.
But wait one minute! Are Nigerians suddenly waking up from their slumber and this time are truly poised to take their country back? Is this social media movement and phenomenon for real or an aberration just like we have experienced in the past? In my last article about 2023 elections just a few weeks ago, the Obi’dient movement was just generating steam on Facebook. As someone who was active during the Southeast for President movement, we had talked about a third force. Does this movement represent that third force? For the most part, Peter Obi and the Obi’dient movement appears to be largely driven by people of Igbo extraction and the youth of Nigeria. The noise on social media and the internet are just deafening to say the least and continues to grow louder every day. Labor party planners and handlers are very effective at using social media to campaign while not campaigning and these social media activities being conducted all over the world continue to project the Obi’dient movement as real and not a farse. Since political campaigns does not begin until September 28, 2023, the Obi’dient movement is effectively utilizing their leader’s almost daily activities to keep his name and the Labor party activities in everyone consciousness. This is simply genius! They have effectively adopted the advertising mantra of repetitiveness – meaning, so long as they continue to bombard the average Nigerian with Peter Obi and the Obi’dient movement, surely that will lead to victory next year. So far, this plan and style of political maneuvering seem to be effective, at least if the decibel level of the Obi’dient movement is one way to measure political success. You cannot click on any social media platform without reading or seeing something about Peter Obi and the Labor party.
The question of whether all these noises, flurries of activities and social media hype will translate to real votes at the polling booth remain to be seen. Let me draw a parallel with the USA’s last primary election. During the Democratic party’s presidential primaries, Barnie Sanders was the leading candidate largely due to support from the youth who utilized their social media savvy to boost their support and noise for their preferred candidate. In fact, during most of the primary campaigns, no one believed Joe Biden will make it due to this heavy noise generated on social media about other candidates such as Barnie Sanders, Pete Buttigieg and even Kamala Harris. But we know the challenges of our youth. They do know how to use the internet but are averse to going to the polls and voting. It is worthy to note that since 1979 in Nigeria, the Northern zones have consistently out voted the southern zones in all elections held in Nigeria. So, the question should be, how and why 2023 will be different? Another way to look at it is to ask what is the partway for the Labor Party to the presidency next year? Do they have enough grassroots support to win 24 out of the 36 states? Given that the surging support for the Labor Party is being largely driven by the people of the core Southeasters who feel, and rightly so, that they have been marginalized in Nigeria and hence does not represent 24 of the 36 states. My point here is simple…populism does not win elections, votes do! If the Labor party does not do their due diligence in ensuring that their social media support and hype is effectively translated into real votes in 2023, they will have themselves to blame. History has shown us that populism does not always win, grassroots campaign and as they say in America and “turning out” your voters on election day is how you win elections.
Shifting gear to Atiku and the PDP campaign, I will stand behind my earlier predictions that PDP is the party to beat come 2023. My justification is all outlined in my last blog below. There is a clear pathway to winning for PDP provided the party does its homework by conducting an effective and inclusive campaign and never take anyone for granted including APC. It is worthy to note that the current rift within the NNPC (the party that could potentially siphon northern votes) will be to the advantage of PDP. Furthermore, the absence of NNPC presidential flag bearer during the last NBA conference may portend a new twist come September. Whether Kwankwaso and his group will mount a good campaign or simply bow out like Tambuwal is and should be up for discussions. Politics is a game of twists and turns and who knows what negotiations are currently underway in the various quarters.
Today there is this one issue that has gone largely unnoticed, and that one issue is the main reason Nigeria has been unable reach its potential up till today. Most people would automatically think that it is the current Boko Haram menace, insecurity all over the entire country or corruption. No! It is about the Nigeria’s unity and our unity of purpose. Because we belong to different tribes and subscribe to different religious beliefs these abstract elements are usurping established processes that would have guaranteed successes otherwise. Let us be frank with each other, every issue currently bedeviling Nigeria has its root in our divisions both tribal and religious. All previous administrations have made decisions that are either impractical or does not serve a national purpose due to our tribal and religious differences and no future administration will succeed if we cannot find a way to UNIFY the country. Suffice to say that this matter of not allowing anyone from Southeast to ascend to the Presidency is rooted in this divisiveness and lack of trust and fear of letting go the power structure. Also, it is this lack of trust that is principally responsible for some segments of Nigerians asking to secede while others scream restructuring. This is an open secret and that elephant in the room that no one want to discuss but is wreaking havoc everywhere.
Today, Atiku and PDP is the only political party speaking to the question of UNIFYING Nigerians first and then an economic policy. Atiku’s call for unification has largely been drowned out by social media noise and has alluded even the savviest politicians and the Nigerian press. Let us be real, no amount of comprehensive political manifesto or savvy will liberate Nigeria if we continue to be divided from within. Whether we like it or not, “divided we fall” and until we find enough common ground to work together as a nation, even God will forsake us to our vices which is basically where we are today. We need to recognize that much of our challenges today are rooted on divisiveness, hate, and mistrust which is effectively being exploited by our political elite to enrich themselves and keep us down. While the Nigerian press is busy highlighting gossips, they have failed to see this one vision being espoused by Atiku and the PDP party. If PDP or any political party can find a way to unify Nigeria, we should be well on our way to achieving Elysium while still living. An adage goes thus… seek you first to understand and then to be understood. My friendly counsel to Atiku and PDP is to seek first to UNIFY his tent and then to UNIFY Nigeria!
I am still very confident that PDP is the party to beat in 2023. To read up on why I feel this way please check out my last blog post on www.nairandkobo.com. There is no denying that Peter Obi and the Labor party has started a movement that is reshaping the political landscape today and perhaps forever, however, and considering how elections are won in Nigeria, I do not see a pathway for the Labor party to be able to win this upcoming election. What I know is that any political party that overlooks or ignores the potential effects and impact of the Obi’dient movement is doing so at their own peril. What I know is that Peter Obi has changed Nigerian politic forever and that what he just started will become the new normal and the very yardstick from which all future political activities will be framed. Judged and measured.
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